Epidemiologic Assessment of Pediatric Inflammatory Bowel Disease Presentation in NYC During COVID-19.

Abstract

Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) pathogenesis is thought to be induced by a mix of genetic susceptibility, microbial populations, and immune triggers such as infections. SARS-nCoV2 may have increased capacity to generate autoimmune disease as evidenced by known spikes in diseases such as Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus. Public health interventions like masking and closures additionally created remarkable drops in typical viral infections, with remarkable shifts in ILI reporting in 2020. This study aims to evaluate the impact of SARS-nCoV2 and associated interventions on pediatric IBD presentation in NYC using records of new diagnoses at a consortium of four institutions between 2016 and June 2022. We fit time series model (ARIMA) to monthly and quarterly number of cases of each disease for January 2016-March 2020 and forecast the period between April 2020 and June 2022. We note no decrease in Ulcerative Colitis or Crohn's Disease in the aftermath of historic low levels of overall viral illness, and statistically significant increases in Crohn's Disease diagnoses and elevation in UC diagnoses creating a trend suggesting overall increase in IBD diagnoses exceeding the baseline rate of increase. These data suggest a possible linkage between SARS-nCoV2 infection rates and subsequent pediatric IBD presentation.