The U.S. Housing Bubble: Implications for Monetary Policy and the Global Supply of Saving

Abstract

A VAR framework is used to determine impacts of key variables thought to have impacted house prices around the time of the housing boom. Separate models are used to capture traditional and nontraditional policies monetary policies during that time. Results show house prices respond to shocks in the federal funds rate and increases in the Fed’s balance sheet as well as shocks in net capital inflows but do not move in response to changes in mortgage or delinquency rates. The inclusion of higher lag orders is necessary to capture the delayed response of important variables affecting the housing market.