A survey on the correlation between PM concentration and the incidence of suspected and positive cases of COVID-19 referred to medical centers: A case study of Tehran.

Abstract

COVID-19, one of the greatest health challenges of the present century, has infected millions of people and caused more than 6 million deaths worldwide. The causative agent of this disease is the new virus SARS-CoV-2; which continues to spread globally and sometimes with new and more complex aspects than before. The present study is an observational study aimed to investigate the role of AQI; PM and its relationship with the incidence of suspected cases (SC) and positive cases (PC) of COVID-19 at different levels of the air quality index (AQI) in Tehran, the capital of Iran in the period from Feb 20th, 2020 to Feb 22nd, 2021. Data on AQI were collected online from the air monitoring website of Air Quality Control Company under the supervision of Tehran Municipality. The data on suspected and positive cases were obtained from the Iranian Ministry of Health. The results and statistical analysis (Pearson correlation test) showed that with the increase of AQI level, the number of suspected cases (SC) and positive cases (PC), also increased (P-value<0.01). The average daily number of suspected and positive COVID-19 cases referred to medical centers, at different levels of the AQI was as follows: level II: yellow, moderate (SC: N = 466; PC: N = 223), level III: orange, unhealthy for sensitive groups (SC: N = 564; PC: N = 275), and Level IV: red, unhealthy (SC: N = 558; PC: N = 294). The results of the GEE for seasonal comparison (winter as reference season), showed that there is an epidemiological pattern in autumn with colder weather compared to other seasons in both suspected (Cl: %95, B = 408.94) and positive (Cl: %95, B = 83.42) cases of COVID-19. The results of this study will serve policymakers as an informative tool for guidance on the importance of the role of air pollution in viral epidemics.