Browsing 2022 Student Research and Creative Activity (SRCA) Showcase by Author "Conte, Logan"
Impacts of Strategic Petroleum Reserve Release in the United StatesBauer, Paul; Conte, Logan (2022)In this paper, I estimate the price of crude oil before and after the announcement of strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) release in the United States and the effect on oil markets. To predict the announcement effect associated with SPR activity, I utilize US Energy Information Administration NYMEX Futures Prices to indicate if oil markets anticipated the announcement by US President Joe Biden to release fifty-million barrels of oil. I create a multivariate regression to calculate weekly change of futures price starting a month before and after announcement. To measure the effectiveness of the SPR, a vector autoregression model will be created to estimate crude oil price change relative to periodic release from the SPR, while controlling for world oil production, import volume, and price lags. Expected findings based on previous research suggests the extent of SPR effectiveness is dependent on the magnitude of the oil shock.