The Relationship of a Basketball Efficiency Rating System to Game Outcome

Abstract

The problem was to determine whether Smith's (1983) basketball efficiency rating system was a valid method of evaluating individual player's performance and predicting game outcome. Subjects were the 1990-91 Syracuse University men's collegiate basketball team and their opponents, 1991-92 University of Rochester men's collegiate basketball team and their opponents and four seasons {1988-1992) of the State University of New York, College at Brockport men's and women's collegiate basketball teams. Data, collected from the sports information directors, included each team's basketball box score statistics for the season. Efficiency ratings were calculated and three correlations were analyzed using the Pearson Product Moment Correlation Coefficient to determine the relationship between the variables: points scored and efficiency ratings, minutes played and efficiency ratings, and team point differences and average team efficiency rating differences. The Critical Values of Correlation Coefficient Table revealed a significant relationship between the three correlations. Therefore, end of game efficiency rating comparisons are a good indication of game outcome and Smith's (1983) efficiency rating system appears to be a valid, reliable and objective evaluation tool.