Predictors of Success on the New York State Earth Science Regents Examination

Abstract

The 1970 New York State Earth Science Regents Syllabus targeted students who displayed a high degree of ability and interest in science. The State Education Department has been reluctant to define exactly what constitutes a higher ability and interest. However it has often been suggested to represent the top 10 to 25% of any given class. This can lead parents and teachers to wonder if there is a factor that can predict a student’s performance. This master thesis examines a number of variables to determine if any of them can be used to help predict the probability of success within the Earth Science Regents examination. The study was conducted at a high school in Western New York. The ninth grade class consisted of 260 students. Out of 132 students that took the test, 104 were included in the study. (Of the other 28 students, one was in the eleventh grade and therefore not included. The other 27 were not included due to incomplete or missing data.) The variables that were included as potential predictors were eighth grade averages in English, math, and science, as well as the percent scores in reading, math, language, study skills, and science from the California Achievement Test. Students’ I.Q. and gender were included later. The study concluded that about 43% of the Earth Science Regents scores could be predicted by three variables: eighth grade final science average, CAT reading score, and gender. A copy of a 1990 Earth Science Regents examination is included in the Appendix.