Is the Standardized Test Score an Accurate Predictor of Academic Performance?

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the third grade Pupil Evaluation Program Test or the Otis Lennon School Ability Index or both were valid predictors of future academic performance as evidenced by high grade point averages, high eleventh grade English Regents exam grades and high SAT and ACT Reading scores. Ninety-one graduates of 1993 who attended school in a suburb of Rochester, New York were identified. All had taken the Pupil Evaluation Program Test in the third grade and the Otis Lennon School Ability Index in grade ten. They had remained at the designated school continuously from kindergarten through grade twelve. The eleventh grade English Regents exam grade, unweighted high school grade point average, weighted high school grade point average, SAT Reading and ACT Reading scores were analyzed to see where the strongest relationships existed. After testing it was found that the third grade Pupil Evaluation Program Test score was an unusually strong predictor for performance on the eleventh grade Regents English Exam (r2 = .39), the SAT Reading score (r2 = .30) and the ACT Reading score (r2 = .33) and a very strong predictor for performance as evidenced by a high unweighted (r2 = .27) and weighted grade point average (r2 = .29). Together with the Otis Lennon score the predictive relationship was even stronger. The Otis Lennon score alone was a minimal predictor for performance on the Regents English exam (r2 = .14), a moderate predictor for the unweighted grade point average (r2 =.18) and SAT-Reading score (r2 = .18), a strong predictor for the weighted grade point average (r2 = .21) and a very strong predictor for the ACT-Reading score (r2 = .30).