Student Work: Recent submissions
Now showing items 1-20 of 195
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Predicting Customer Churn in the Telecom Sector Using Machine LearningTelecom companies spend a lot to acquire new customers, making it crucial to retain these customers and ensure they continue using their plans. Churn refers to customers leaving their current service provider for another one. Once companies secure a long-term customer, they can profit significantly from them. Therefore, customer churn is a major concern for a company’s revenue and business growth, especially in the competitive telecommunications industry. By analyzing customer behavior and the services they use, companies can predict churn. This predictive capability allows them to minimize losses and enhance their business performance.
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Why Patients Miss Their Appointments, Health Care No-Show AppointmentIn healthcare, extensive data is collected daily to track patient appointments, whether for routine checkups or evaluations of specific symptoms. However, missed appointments are a common issue with significant implications for both patients and healthcare providers. For patients, missed appointments can delay the diagnosis and treatment of health conditions, potentially worsening outcomes. For clinics and hospitals, no-shows lead to inefficient use of resources and lost opportunities to deliver care to other patients who may need it urgently. This study aims to leverage predictive analytics to identify patterns in missed appointments. Specifically, it will explore whether certain health conditions, such as hypertension and diabetes, or demographic factors, including age, gender, and neighborhood, are associated with a higher likelihood of missing appointments. By analyzing these correlations, the study seeks to provide insights that can inform strategies to reduce no-show rates, enhance patient care, and optimize resource allocation within healthcare settings.
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Analyzing Factors Contributing to Pedestrian Fatalities Using Predictive ModelsPedestrian fatalities are a significant issue worldwide, particularly in the United States. These fatalities stem from various causes, including distracted driving, speeding, inadequate road maintenance, and poor visibility due to weather conditions. The risk also varies heavily by area and population density, with high-traffic and high-speed regions often prioritizing vehicle flow over pedestrian safety. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHSTA) collects extensive accident data involving pedestrians. Using this dataset, we aim to build a classification model to predict the likelihood of one or more fatalities in a traffic accident given key factors like road conditions, weather, time of day, speed and more. The goal of this research is to leverage predictive modeling to identify high-risk situations and develop intervention or fast reaction strategies. By combining NHTSA data with machine learning techniques, this study enhances our understanding of critical risk factors. Furthermore, it explores the potential for practical applications, such as improved road safety tools, safer urban planning, and real-time alert systems.
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Institutional Quality and Foreign Aid Effectiveness: The Future of Corruption and Foreign Aid FlowsThis study examines the relationship between institutional quality and the effectiveness of foreign aid, using corruption as a key indicator. Institutional quality, often emphasized in policy discussions, plays a pivotal role in determining the outcomes of aid initiatives. Previous literature has emphasized the dependency of foreign aid effectiveness on good institutional quality. To evaluate this relationship, a Corruption Index is used as a representative of institutional quality; a factor most talked about in policy making. Using machine learning techniques to analyze whether corruption hinders economic growth and development by undermining the foreign aid effectiveness. Through a panel data approach, aid, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product per capita, and the Corruption Index, are used to predict the future direction of corruption and GDP per capita, which serves as a proxy for the efficiency of foreign aid. The analysis employs multiple machine learning models, with Random Forest and XGBoost demonstrating the highest accuracy. These models suggest that in the future, corruption is likely to decline while GDP per capita is projected to rise, indicating that foreign aid flows may become more effective as corruption diminishes.
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Predicting the Risk of Depression Based on the Patient's Chronic Diseases and Other Physiological AttributesThe prevalence of chronic diseases like diabetes, hypertension, and chronic respiratory conditions contributes significantly to global mortality rates. In addition, there is growing evidence that links mental health disorders to physical activity, body mass index (BMI), and chronic diseases, highlighting their importance in public health research. This study investigates the intricate relationship between chronic diseases and depression, employing innovative Machine Learning techniques to predict depression likelihood based on various health comorbidities. Results indicate that Naive Bayes consistently outperforms other models, highlighting its potential for accurate predictions. The trade-off between specificity and accuracy, however, highlights the necessity of balanced datasets in real-world applications.
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The Hidden Ecosystem: the Microbial World of Red-Backed SalamandersEach organism has a complex microbiota that protects the organism from pathogenic microbes, while simultaneously occupying residency on the surface of the host. There are several factors that can contribute to microbial diversity, such as anthropogenic, abiotic, and biotic factors within their habitat. Red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) are found across the northeastern US in a variety of different habitats. We aimed to collect and culture salamander epidermal microbes along an urbanization gradient (Point au Roche State Park, Rugar Woods, and the Paul Smiths VIC- control and 2-aged silviculture stand) to evaluate microbial diversity patterns. At each site, 15 salamanders were located under microhabitat (e.g., rocks, logs, leaf litter), weighed, and measured before swabbing dorsoventral surfaces. Swabs were streaked across plates and were allowed to grow at ambient temperatures for a week. Morphotype diversity was calculated based on the richness and abundance of colonies on plates across sites. Samples of both common and unique morphotypes were sent off for sequencing. Salamanders were more commonly found under rocks at Rugar Woods as compared to all other sites respectively. Additionally, red-backed salamanders at Point au Roche were notably larger than Paul Smiths VIC and Rugar Woods. Bacterial morphotype richness was greatest and least at Rugar Woods (urban) and Point au Roche State Park (agriculture), respectively. Findings at Rugar Woods suggest that rocky substrate may support greater microbial richness as compared to coarse woody debris. Common salamander bacteria include Microbacterium liquefaciens, Pseudomonas moraviensis, Chryseobacterium scophthalmum, and Stenotrophomonas rhizophilia all species associated with soil, water, and plant rhizosphere. Chryseobacterium scophthalmum is associated with amphibian disease and S. rhizophilia is known to possess anti-chytrid and other antifungal properties. Our research sheds light on how landscape management, specifically understory conditions and complexity, can influence salamander condition and microbial diversity and potentially influence disease risk within the herpetofaunal community.
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Let's Get Batty! A Survey of Bat Species Composition in a Globally Rare Pine Barrens EcosystemHabitat loss, climate change, and disease have all contributed to the statewide decline in bat populations. Acoustic surveys are the least invasive method to determine bat community composition across the landscape. Acoustic mobile transects and stationary surveys were performed at three sites within the Altona Flat Rock, a globally rare sandstone pavement jack pine barrens in the fall of 2024. These sites were within the 2018 burn area, in an adjacent wildfire recovered (1957) jack pine (Pinus banksiana) stand, and in a mixed forest near the abandoned Million Dollar Dam in comparison to sites in agricultural and urban (SUNY Plattsburgh campus, City Marina) areas. We hypothesized that species richness would be higher in the 2018 burn site due to more open overstory and with close proximity to the wetland where insects should be more prevalent. Our results did not support this hypothesis with species richness being greatest at the Flat Rock forested dam (9). The Flat Rock burned site had a species richness of 6, and SUNY Plattsburgh campus had a species richness of 5. The Flat Rock unburned, or recovered site, City Marina and agricultural sites had the lowest species richness (4). In total, all nine native species were detected during our surveys, with the hoary and silver-haired bat being detected across all sites. Notably, we potentially detected two endangered species: the northern long-eared bat (Myotis septentrionalis) and the Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis), and a proposed endangered species, the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). We also found community similarity between the Flat Rock burned and Flat Rock forested dam, Flat Rock burned and City Marina, and Flat Rock burned and agricultural sites were the most similar (80%). Our results suggest that bats prefer more complex habitats like the Flat Rock forested dam. New York state is working to increase bat survey efforts by engaging citizen scientists. We plan to share our findings with local agencies and the New York State Natural Heritage Program to aid their efforts to map and conserve bat communities in unique habitats.
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Woodn't You Know: Beaver (Castor canadensis) Foraging PreferenceBeavers (Castor canadensis) have been defined as ecosystem engineers, playing keystone roles in wetlands including bolstering flood resiliency, storing water storage during drought, nutrient retention, and habitat creation for aquatic and terrestrial species. Much of what we understand about beaver foraging preference centers around central place foraging theory with the lodge as a safe refugia from predation risk. The selective browsing behavior of beavers shifts forest successional trajectories and increases local biodiversity. We wanted to evaluate foraging preference and habits of two beaver populations in sandstone pavement barrens versus a wildlife management area. We hypothesized that beavers would prefer trees that are more abundant and closer to their lodge. In fall 2024, we surveyed beaver ponds at two sites in Clinton County, NY, specifically a wildlife management area (Wickham Marsh) and the Altona Flat Rock sandstone pavement barrens (2018 burn). Using the Survey123 app, we recorded tree species, diameter at breast height, beaver activity (e.g., browsed, partially browsed, unbrowsed), and distance to shoreline and lodge. The average diameter of trees browsed at Wickham Marsh was twice that of the Flat Rock and beavers venture 1.6m farther out from water than at the Flat Rock to harvest. Based on the ecological setting the two different beaver populations had to forage differently, specifically at the Flat Rock beavers were forced to travel farther away from their lodge compared to at Wickham Marsh. This was due to limited availability of trees due to its early successional phase forest compared to Wickham where the forest is in later successional stages. In addition, at the Flat Rock jack pine (Pinus banksiana) trees are mostly avoided, while hardwoods are selected. At Wickham Marsh, the most heavily browsed species are eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) and green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica), while white pine (Pinus strobus) and red pine (P. resinosa) are avoided. The largest trees browsed at Wickham Marsh were closest to the lodge, supporting central place theory. Numerous factors drive beaver foraging behaviors and include predation risk, forest composition, deer density, and drought. In the case of the Flat Rock browsed trees were smaller, in part due to low nutrients available on the barrens. Beaver complexes at the Flat Rock are expansive, likely because limited quantity and quality of browse forces them to relocate. Our research is important because it provides land managers better understanding of what a habitat may come to resemble as beavers move about their landscape, which include impacts from deforestation, ponding, and abandonment which can disrupt an entire ecosystem. Our findings demonstrate that beaver wetlands add structural and resource complexity to the ecosystem, creating a patchwork of biodiversity.
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Going Cray Cray with the Crawdaddies: Influences of water quality and site conditions on the diversity and abundance of crayfish communities in northern New YorkFreshwater crayfish are a group of macroinvertebrate omnivores that serve as a prey species for fish and birds. They are under threat with changing climates, and greater research on their distribution patterns across different habitats is needed to establish a necessary conservation strategy. Key factors which determine the presence of crayfish species are water velocity, water quality, over story, and substrate composition. Relatively limited research has successfully established a link between crayfish species and the water quality metrics. We predicted that fewer crayfish species and lesser abundance would be found in the lentic sites. In fall 2024, we placed 5 to 23 minnow and turtle traps in lotic (Little Ausable River) and lentic (Barracks Golf Course) sites for 24 hours. Crayfish captured were examined for parasites, in addition to being weighed and measured. Specimens were photographed, marked on the carapace with a permanent marker, and immediately released. Two species of crayfish were identified, one unique to each site, Faxonius immunis at the lentic ponds and Cambarus robustus at the lotic river. Additionally, greater crayfish abundance occurred at the lentic site. Water quality tests showed similar average pH (7.91, 8.02) and conductivity (198, 210) ranges between the lentic and lotic sites, respectively. Little Ausable River trapping site velocities ranged between 42.5 m3/s to 1.181 m3/s, which likely affected the crayfish population. Crayfish were on average smaller at the lentic versus the lotic sites, potentially as a function of predation, water quality, and available resources. By establishing a better understanding of the distribution of crayfish types of wetlands, more effective conservation strategies can be implemented for declining native species in North America.
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The Un-frog-ettable Microhabitats of Northeastern Amphibians: Rural to Urban GradientsAmphibians have been the subject of global decline for decades. There are many factors contributing to their decline, one of which is urbanization and the side effects resulting from it, such as habitat fragmentation and pollution. Habitat fragmentation resulting from land-use changes such as silviculture, agriculture, and urbanization impact forest structure and resource availability for herpetofauna. Notably, factors like soil pH, moisture, as well as the abundance of coarse woody debris (CWD) and rocky microhabitats, can undergo significant changes with these stand and landscape-level disturbances. In Fall 2024, we examined four sites along a landcover gradient (e.g., Urban- Rugar Woods, Agriculture- Riley Brook, and Forested-Control and Silviculture- Paul Smiths VIC). We found that the site with the least amount of disturbance/management and farthest from urban sprawl had the highest amphibian abundance and diversity, with 5 different species represented over a total of 47 individuals. Site-specific unique species include northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) at the agriculture-Riley Brook, an American toad (Bufo a. americanus) at the Forest-Paul Smiths silviculture, and a four-toed salamander (Hemidactylium scutatum) at the Forest-Paul Smiths control site. Red-backed salamanders (Plethodon cinereus) were the most abundant species found, and were observed in all sites, excepting for agriculture. Due to the abundance of red-backed salamanders, we were able to compare differences in morphological data, the lengths (cm) and weights (g). Although there was no significant difference in length, urban red-backed salamanders were heavier than at other sites. We found no significant difference in microhabitat temperatures across site or type (e.g., CWD, rock, grass), but amphibians preferred log cover to any other microhabitat in all sites but Rugar Woods. We calculated the Sorensen similarity index to assess species composition similarities and further examine the impact of environmental changes on biodiversity across sites. With the addition of this research, we aim to gain a deeper understanding of the habitat preferences, site characteristics and requirements of amphibians, information that is crucial for guiding effective conservation efforts and mitigating biodiversity loss.
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Natures Chorus: Determining Avian Richness across Microhabitats using AudioMothsBird surveys are commonly actively performed using point count techniques; however, more recently, passive acoustics have become a complementary method to evaluate species richness and trends across microhabitats. Traditional methods like point counts may lead to biases in data records depending on the researcher's experience level. Autonomous recording devices (ARU), such as AudioMoths, are an affordable method for those studying avifauna to add to their toolbox. Confidence in rare species identification may increase by being able to leave AudioMoths out for a longer duration than feasible with traditional point counts and the ease with which artificial intelligence program workflows can attempt species confirmation. In the fall of 2024, we performed both passive (ARU) and active (point count) avifauna surveys across three microhabitats (e.g., wetland, forest, meadow) at Point au Roche State Park. Our active surveying method used binoculars and Merlin Bird ID to help identify species for three-10-minute intervals during each visit. Our passive surveying method used AudioMoths to record vocalizations deployed for seven days, recording during peak hours from 20:00-8:00. BirdNet-Analyzer was used to identify vocalizations from audio files. Species richness was greatest in the meadow (51) and wetland (47) and least in the forest (27). Merlin Bird ID recorded black-capped chickadee (Poecile atricapillus), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), blue jay (Cyanocitta cristata), and downy woodpeckers (Picoides pubescens) across the sites. The American crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos) and barred owl (Strix varia) called abundantly at the wetland (43%) and the meadow (36%) sites, while the forest site was more limited. Avian community similarity was greatest between the wetland and meadow (64%) microhabitats. Other notable species observed are stripe-faced meadow katydid (Orchelimum concinnum), wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), and spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer). We highlight the importance of conducting active and passive surveying across multiple habitats to more adequately capture rare species that might be difficult to capture with shorter survey durations.
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Frog Phonics: Capturing the Chorus of Vernal Pools with AudioMothsBird surveys are commonly actively performed using point count techniques; however, more recently, passive acoustics have become a complementary method to evaluate species richness and trends across microhabitats. Traditional methods like point counts may lead to biases in data records depending on the researcher's experience level. Autonomous recording devices (ARU), such as AudioMoths, are an affordable method for those studying avifauna to add to their toolbox. Confidence in rare species identification may increase by being able to leave AudioMoths out for a longer duration than feasible with traditional point counts and the ease with which artificial intelligence program workflows can attempt species confirmation. In the fall of 2024, we performed both passive (ARU) and active (point count) avifauna surveys across three microhabitats (e.g., wetland, forest, meadow) at Point au Roche State Park. Our active surveying method used binoculars and Merlin Bird ID to help identify species for three-10-minute intervals during each visit. Our passive surveying method used AudioMoths to record vocalizations deployed for seven days, recording during peak hours from 20:00-8:00. BirdNet-Analyzer was used to identify vocalizations from audio files. Species richness was greatest in the meadow (51) and wetland (47) and least in the forest (27). Merlin Bird ID recorded black-capped chickadee (Poecile atricapillus), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), blue jay (Cyanocitta cristata), and downy woodpeckers (Picoides pubescens) across the sites. The American crow (Corvus brachyrhynchos) and barred owl (Strix varia) called abundantly at the wetland (43%) and the meadow (36%) sites, while the forest site was more limited. Avian community similarity was greatest between the wetland and meadow (64%) microhabitats. Other notable species observed are stripe-faced meadow katydid (Orchelimum concinnum), wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), and spring peeper (Pseudacris crucifer). We highlight the importance of conducting active and passive surveying across multiple habitats to more adequately capture rare species that might be difficult to capture with shorter survey durations.
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Picta outta those traps: Looking at painted turtle ( Chrysemys picta ) populations along an urban to rural gradientUrbanization can affect wildlife populations in the form of road mortality, habitat degradation, and spatio-temporal behavioral shifts. Understanding how wildlife populations respond to these effects can help us manage and protect them. We studied painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine how urbanization impacts their population structure, including abundance, age structure, and sex ratio. This project is in collaboration with the Ecological Research as Education Network (EREN) and guided by TurtlePop 2.0. We hypothesized that painted turtles would be more abundant in a rural setting over an urban setting due to better habitat quality. We predicted that there would be more female turtles in urban areas due to warmer temperatures driven by an urban environment and that there would be more juvenile turtles in the rural site due to less mesopredators. To evaluate urbanization, we monitored turtles along a gradient from rural at Deep Bay Pond located in Point Au Roche State Park to urban at the Barracks golf course pond complex in the City of Plattsburgh, NY. Turtles were captured using 10 baited crab hoop traps at each site over a 3-day capture session, visiting urban site 5 times and the rural site 4 times each in fall 2024. Captured turtles were measured in size, estimated in age and sex, notched with a unique three-letter code for mark recapture estimates, and released. We calculated and compared turtle abundance between sites and over time. In addition, we monitored water quality (e.g., pH, conductivity, pond and ambient temperatures), as well as pond size and basking site availability. The urban site had three more females than the rural site, as predicted and both sites had a higher proportion of males to females. Contrary to our prediction, the urban site had more juveniles than the rural site, with only one more juvenile at that site. Both sites had the same number of adults, but the urban site had more females to males with 8 females and 18 males. The rural site had 5 females and 21 males. The urban site had more females which supported our hypothesis, however, it also had one more juvenile than the rural site, refuting our hypothesis. All ponds had a slightly basic pH around 8. Temperature was slightly colder at the rural site, likely due to the larger size and connection to Lake Champlain. Conductivity was above 200 S/m in the rural site and urban ponds 5 and 6 while ponds 1, 2, and 4 were around 160 S/m. Basking sites did not seem to impact turtle abundance. The Barracks golf course may want to monitor any use of herbicides or fertilizers near the ponds while Point au Roche State Park may want to limit salting the road by the pond to reduce pollutants in the pond. Both urban and rural ponds are important habitats for painted turtles and other wildlife. Monitoring age and sex structure is important to assure that the population can successfully recruit and grow. Our study can be used to inform wetland management by highlighting the unique challenges that freshwater turtles face in both urban and rural settings.
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Burns, Buckets, and Traps: Assessing Small Mammal Species Richness and Abundance Following Wildfires in a Northern New York Jack Pine BarrenWildfires have a significant impact on ecosystems and wildlife populations across the world. The Altona Flat Rock is a rare sandstone barren ecosystem dominated by fire-dependent jack pine (Pinus banksiana) and has a sporadic history of burns with the most recent occurring in 2018. This recent fire has significantly altered the ecosystem structure and resource availability, affecting the small mammal community, as well as contributing to higher-level trophic implications ecosystem-wide. Our goal was to collect data on the small mammal species richness and abundance between the recent 2018 burn site, a relatively older 1957 burn site, and a nearby mixed deciduous forest using both Sherman traps and bucket camera traps. We predicted to find more diversity in small mammals at the mixed deciduous forest site and with the bucket camera traps. Data was collected by setting Sherman traps overnight along transects at each site and identifying, weighing, measuring, and determining the sex of all individuals caught before releasing them. Bucket camera data was captured using a motion triggered game camera and analyzed by determining the lowest number of individuals that visited each night. According to the Sherman trapping data, the mixed-deciduous forest and 2018 site had the lowest species diversity (S=2) compared to the older 1957 burn site (S=4), however in field observations and camera bucket data shows that species diversity is likely greatest in the mixed deciduous site (S=5). Long-term data in the 2018 and 1957 burn sites indicate potential shifts in the small mammal community with 2024 being the most diverse year in the sampling history (S=2 and S=4). Our results illustrate the potential recovery of the small mammal community in the 2018 burn site as well as the efficacy of bucket camera methodology for conducting species richness surveys. Results from this study will be helpful for informing future land management practices involving fire, as well as for future research involving sampling small mammals.
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Do you hear what I hear? Soundscapes Along a Gradient of Urbanization in Clinton County, NYSoundscapes are a compilation of sounds emanating from a landscape which creates an acoustic pattern across time and space. Wildlife behaviors are easily influenced by sound and can be reflected in periods of intense vocalization and silence. Urban landscapes are heavily influenced by anthrophony (human-produced sound) which can limit or enhance biophony (wildlife-produced sound). In fall 2024, the Wildlife Ecology and Management class arrayed five autonomous recording devices (AudioMoths) along an urbanization gradient (urban, urban interface, exurban golf course, rural riparia, and forested beaver pond). Audiomoths were programmed to record sound during peak hours of wildlife activity from 17:00-8:00 on two consecutive days during a warm spell. Data were downloaded and BirdNet-Analyzer was used to identify species using artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms associated with eBird. Output files were appended in R Studio and soundscape patterns were analyzed across sites. Biophony richness was highest at the exurban golf course (41), followed by urban (38), beaver pond (20), rural riparia (18), and urban interface (16). The most frequent callers at the urban site were American crow, dogs, squirrels, blue jays, Canada geese, and Carolina wren. At the urban interface, Canada geese, Carolina wren, and northern cardinals were highly vocal. At the exurban golf course, spring peeper, white-throated sparrows, barred owls, American crows, hairy woodpecker, and katydids were heard as compared to the rural riparia's eastern towhees, great-horned owls, and hairy woodpeckers. In contrast, anthrophonic call frequency was high and most similar at the urban (981) and and exurban golf course (891), intermediate at the urban interface (136), followed by the beaver pond (39), and rural riparia (33) with sounds including engines, humans, and power tools. At dawn the urban, exurban golf course, and beaver pond exhibited a high biophonic call frequency, while at dusk urbanized sites experienced extremely high calling rates compared to rural sites. Urban and exurban golf course communities were the most similar (51%), while the urban interface and the beaver pond were the least (22%). Soundscape ecology is a relatively new field that is growing in popularity due to the affordability of sensors and advances in AI. Our class learned that although these technologies have numerous benefits, there is still a need to perform supplemental surveys using traditional techniques or experts should be onboarded to help better identify misidentified calls.
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"A History Hidden and Hijacked: Overcoming Barriers to Holocaust Education in the Muslim World"In this essay, I explore the prevalence of Holocaust denial, distortion, and ignorance in Muslim-majority countries. Drawing from my own experiences growing up in Bangladesh and being an exchange student in the United States, I analyze various social, political, and religious impediments to Holocaust education in Islamic cultures. I have witnessed first-hand the nature of antisemitism that pervades cultures across the world, and my journey to confront my own previous ignorance has allowed me to grasp the importance of combating such bigoty and the weaponization of history.
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How Well Does Fundamental Analysis Explain the Returns of the Thirty Stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average?Due to the volatility recently experienced in the United States Stock market, this study aims to explain the relationship between fundamental analysis and stock returns over a quarterly time frame to take advantage of the swings in the market. This study includes both micro (firm-specific) fundamental indicators and macro variables that help explain the economy's health as a whole. This study takes the thirty stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) as of February 2024 and analyzes their returns and underlying financials. It uses accounting and financial ratios along with measures of the overall economy to try and capture opportunities to generate financial returns in the Stock Market. This paper offers evidence based on company panel data analysis on a quarterly basis from quarter one of 2014 to quarter four of 2023. The results produced from the model indicate an increase in recession risk and federal funds rate generate negative stock returns. In contrast, an increase in the Price-earnings ratio and analyst recommendations generate positive stock returns. The above variables are significant at the 5% level with an R squared of 0.126.
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Effects of Economic Conditions on Foreign Direct Investment: Country Level Panel Data AnalysisForeign direct investment (FDI) has long been a major source of financing for infrastructure and commercial projects, especially for developing nations. This paper explores a panel data analysis of the economic conditions that affect levels of FDI inflow, with a sample set consisting of 18 countries from 1981 to 2014 on a quarterly basis. Variables considered include macroeconomic conditions such as GDP, stock market performance, interest rates of varying terms, crime perception, and trade openness. The final model(s) discussed establish that FDI inflow is positively correlated with strong GDP and stock market performance as well as, surprisingly, 3- month and 10-year interest rates. Trade policies and crime perception seem to act with a significant lag, and the effects of many variables seem to depend on the development status of the country as well.
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Impacts of Economic Development and Stability on Crime: Country Level Panel Data AnalysisThis research paper examines the dynamics between economic development, financial stability, and crime rates across various countries. Rooted from the economic theory of crime and institutional anomie theory, this study uses a robust panel data analysis covering numerous countries to explore how economic metrics such as GNI per capita, foreign direct investment inflows, and financial institution strength relate to crime perceptions. The empirical analysis, using GLS, fixed effects, and random effects models along with a series of robustness checks, confirms significant relationships between these economic factors and crime levels. Preliminary results indicate that while economic fitness can occasionally spur increases in crime rates, possibly due to concentration of people, stronger financial institutions and a more stable government generally contribute to reductions in crime. This paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on crime economics by improving our understanding of the economic causes of crime and showing how changes in certain factors can reduce crime through economic strategies.
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Adirondack Artificial Ecological PassagesTo enhance road safety for motorists and wildlife in the Adirondack Park, we analyzed deer-vehicle collision data from the New York State Department of Transportation to identify potential locations for artificial ecological passages (AEPs), culverts and bridges specifically designed to allow mammals to cross roads. In the U.S., wildlife-vehicle collisions result in approximately 200 deaths, 26,000 injuries, and $8 billion in damages annually, with New York reporting 65,000 deer-vehicle collisions (DVC) alone. We located the road segments with the greatest number of deer collisions and assessed the characteristics of these road segments and the nearby land cover, using the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) data set and the National Land Cover Database. We examined the potential placement and type of AEPs, factoring in topography, hydrography, and existing structures for passage site selection, favoring infrastructure upgrades over new construction. The twenty road segments with the highest collision rate include sections of Interstate 87, Route 3, and Route 28, as well as areas near Saranac Lake and Old Forge. Increased AADT was positively correlated with the number of DVCs with most DVCs occurring on road segments with speed limits of 25 to 45 mph. Dominant land cover around these road segments is primarily evergreen and deciduous forests. Along these twenty road segments, we were able to locate a number of potential sites for culvert expansion or bridge repurposing and for newly constructed passage structures. Implementing these changes could significantly reduce park collisions, fatalities, and financial losses.