• Forecasting US GDP: assessing the quantity theory of money as a device

      Chang, Daphne Miyagawa (2021-12)
      We revisit Friedman’s Quantity of Money Theory and analyze the ability to forecast US real GDP using lagged M2 money supply. The Granger Causality Test indicates that M2 money supply Granger causes real GDP. However, we find that the causality is one-way, from M2 to real GDP, as real GDP fails to Granger cause M2. We surveyed a range of ARIMAX models to ascertain whether M2 money supply still forecasts economic activity, both before and during the global COVID pandemic. While economic theory suggests that money is neutral, we found that hybrid models that combine both standard ARIMA parameters plus M2 money supply growth as an exogenous regressor(s) actually improve forecast accuracy. Both before, during, and in the full sample, a hybrid model combining money supply and autoregressive parameters outperform atheoretical Box Jenkins models as well as the naïve model. Our results suggest that, while money supply has fallen off the radar screen of many economists, employing M2 in a hybrid model still improves forecasting ability.
    • Just around the corner: Le Choux Café

      Yee, Natalie (2019-12)
      The purpose of this paper is to break down a business plan section-by-section to guide me in learning how to write a successful business plan. This specific business plan is about a bakery business, Le Choux Café, that I would like to open in the future. From marketing, to management, to finance, this paper goes through all of these topics. The marketing plan taught me the specific details that need to be considered from opening the bakery to keeping it alive for years to come. I didn’t previously consider the management aspect of the bakery as in-depth as I should have and discovered many elements that are critical to sustaining Le Choux. I performed a basic sketch of the financial plan for the sake of the thesis, but I know that the numbers that need to be considered are more complex than what is provided. I have provided visual aid to show how I would market my bakery, such as business cards and pictures of baked goods that I have personally made.
    • Marlboro Safety Group (MSG) Inc. goes to France

      Leduc, Olivia (2021-12)
      My thesis, Marlboro Safety Group (MSG) Inc. Goes to France, is a theoretical international expansion of my formerly owned company into France. This research explored internationalization strategy, accounting principles and a comparison of cultural dimensions between the United States and France. The purpose of this expansion would be to utilize our experience within the world of OSHA, specifically the procurement of OSHA 30 and 10 hour cards within the construction sector and focus on the greater New York City area, and donate our administrative services to the filing of the Carte BTP, the OSHA card equivalent, in France. Findings suggested that the creation of a subsidiary would be the most beneficial for the undertaking of this expansion with emphasis placed on finding a contact person who can both speak French and has experience with French policy and government. Once established as a subsidiary, accounting principles call for the subsidiary to be deemed an LLC and in France it is a SARL de famille due to the fact that there is more than one owner and MSG is a family-owned business. When taxed as an SARL de famille, income is subject to personal income tax and when filing income taxes at home, a tax credit is given in the amount of tax withholdings paid to the French government so that income made abroad is not taxed twice. Finally, cultural differences are imperative to acknowledge when creating a work environment that is both appropriate and comfortable for those working under our guidance in France. For this evaluation, research of Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions evaluated topics such as acceptance of the business hierarchy, individualism, factors for motivation, uncertainty avoidance, adaptation to or acceptance of change and indulgence. In addition to Hofstede’s dimensions, general culture norms were explored in order to give a baseline of accepted behaviors when doing business in France.