Feedback relations and causal orders between sea surface temperature and convection within the western Pacific warm pool

Abstract

Analysis of time series of standardized anomalies of sea surface temperature and outgoing longwave radiation from the western Pacific warm pool revealed two distinct modes of atmosphere-ocean interaction. A statistically binding positive feedback relationship between convection and ocean temperature exists over the equatorial region surrounding the international date line. Here, the contemporaneous feedback between the/se two variables is not statistically significant. A causal order from the ocean temperature to outgoing longwave radiation is detected in a region of the Southwest Pacific, where ocean patches with temperatures greater than or equal to 29.75° C form most frequently. Dynamical implications associated with the aforementioned feedback relationship and causal order are illustrated by estimating the impact of a sudden transient LTJ.crease in convection on future values of sea surface temperature and vice versa.