Estimating Parameters of the 1918-19 Influenza Epidemic on U.S. Military Bases

Abstract

Occasional shifts in the influenza virus generates a new variant, posing potential threat of a deadly epidemic. This type of shift occurred with the 1918-19 flu with devastating consequences in the U.S. and worldwide. Using newly developed data from 18 U.S. military establishments during the 1918-19 flu epidemic, we estimate parameters of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed epidemic model. Our estimates show considerable variation in the value of the infectivity parameter across bases. This variation is uncorrelated with base size or beginning date of the epidemic. Results indicate that the epidemic on U.S. military bases was more infectious than those of in England and Wales.