Same Peak, Different Birds? An Exploratory Analysis of Long-Term Avian Community Monitoring on Mount Mansfield, Vermont

Abstract

High-elevation bird communities are one of the groups most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, but there are still few long-term studies tracking demographic shifts within them. One potential outcome of climate change is that traditionally lower-elevation species may encroach upslope, competing with or replacing high-elevation species over time. Most analyses of elevational shifts have relied on passive surveys (e.g., point count data), which can detect species presence but cannot disentangle the finer-scale demographic processes at play. Since 1992, The Vermont Center for Ecostudies has been banding and monitoring high-elevation birds on the ridgeline (1100-1250 m) of Mount Mansfield, VT. We will present an exploratory analysis of these data investigating trends in capture rates of breeding females and juveniles for different species over the years. This analysis will provide new insight into community turnover in this habitat to complement passive surveys. Monitoring the demography of high elevation avian communities can reveal finer-scale temporal shifts in response to climate change and forecast which species may be most at-risk.