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Does climate change impact terrorism? An empirical approach investigating the link in predominantly global south countries
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Özler, Ilgu
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Spring 2025
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2025-05
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Fallaha_Honors.pdf
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This thesis seeks to examine how climate change, through both long-term vulnerabilities and acute natural disasters, affects terrorism. Using the “climate threat multiplier” framework, this analysis explores how climate-related factors such as food and water insecurity, environmental degradation, droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events interact with state fragility to create conditions that strengthen or give rise to terrorist organizations and non-state armed groups (NSAGs). Additionally, on the flip side, the paper will seek to explore how climate adaptation may decrease terrorism. Keywords:
International Relations, Climate Change, Terrorism, Violent Extremism, Non-State Armed Groups (NSAGs), Climate Threat Multiplier, Climate Natural Disasters, Climate Adaptation, State Fragility, Global South, Climate Readiness (ND-GAIN Index), Climate Vulnerability GDL Vulnerability Index (GVI), Global Terrorism Database (GTD), Regression Analysis
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