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Santamaria, Zachary
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Spring 2025
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2025
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9877_Mohammad_Nofal.pdf
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This paper examines the global decline in fertility rates and its economic, social, and cultural consequences. Drawing on historical patterns, present day case studies, and a comparative dataset of African countries, the study analyzes how economic development, urbanization, gender roles, and cultural norms influence fertility behavior. Evidence from countries like the United States, China, South Korea, and Sub-Saharan Africa reveals that while modernization tends to lower fertility, outcomes vary significantly based on institutional support and societal values. A cross-sectional analysis of African economies shows that agrarian countries maintain significantly higher fertility rates than non-agrarian ones, underscoring the importance of economic structure. The paper concludes that effective fertility-related policy must be context-specific, addressing both structural barriers and deeply held cultural expectations. Without coordinated policy and societal support, continued fertility decline may pose serious challenges to labor markets, healthcare systems, and long-term economic sustainability.
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