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Seasonality, Timing, and Climate Drivers of Influenza Activity Worldwide
Azziz Baumgartner, Eduardo Dao, Christine N. Nasreen, Sharifa
Bhuiyan, Mejbah Uddin Mah-E-Muneer, Syeda Mamun, Abdullah Al Sharker, M. A. Yushuf Zaman, Rashid Uz Cheng, Po-Yung Klimov, Alexander I.
Azziz Baumgartner, Eduardo
Dao, Christine N.
Bhuiyan, Mejbah Uddin
Mah-E-Muneer, Syeda
Mamun, Abdullah Al
Sharker, M. A. Yushuf
Zaman, Rashid Uz
Cheng, Po-Yung
Klimov, Alexander I.
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Journal Title
The Journal of Infectious Diseases
Keywords
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Term and Year
Publication Date
2012-07-24
Type
Book Title
Publication Volume
206
Publication Issue
6
Publication Begin
838
Publication End
846
Number of pages
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jis467.pdf
Adobe PDF, 628.89 KB
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Abstract
Background: Although influenza is a vaccine-preventable disease that annually causes substantial disease burden, data on virus activity in tropical countries are limited. We analyzed publicly available influenza data to better understand the global circulation of influenza viruses.
Method: We reviewed open-source, laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance data. For each country, we abstracted data on the percentage of samples testing positive for influenza each epidemiologic week from the annual number of samples testing positive for influenza. The start of influenza season was defined as the first week when the proportion of samples that tested positive remained above the annual mean. We assessed the relationship between percentage of samples testing positive and mean monthly temperature with use of regression models.
Findings: We identified data on laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection from 85 countries. More than one influenza epidemic period per year was more common in tropical countries (41%) than in temperate countries (15%). Year-round activity (ie, influenza virus identified each week having ≥ 10 specimens submitted) occurred in 3 (7%) of 43 temperate, 1 (17%) of 6 subtropical, and 11 (37%) of 30 tropical countries with available data (P = .006). Percentage positivity was associated with low temperature (P = .001).
Interpretation: Annual influenza epidemics occur in consistent temporal patterns depending on climate.
Citation
Azziz Baumgartner E, Dao CN, Nasreen S, Bhuiyan MU, Mah-E-Muneer S, Al Mamun A, Sharker MA, Zaman RU, Cheng PY, Klimov AI, Widdowson MA, Uyeki TM, Luby SP, Mounts A, Bresee J. Seasonality, timing, and climate drivers of influenza activity worldwide. J Infect Dis. 2012 Sep 15;206(6):838-46. doi: 10.1093/infdis/jis467. Epub 2012 Jul 24. PMID: 22829641.